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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

204 Posts
Preston Mui

Even though today’s report gave back some of the weakness in the July household survey, the reversion was slight. The August report meets the conditions we laid out yesterday for a 50 bps cut in September to play catch-up.

A quiet week after Jackson Hole. What we did hear this past week showed that Powell has some convincing to do on the Committee.

Almost as notable as the things Powell said were the things he did not. Between now and September, Fedspeak should focus on keeping the Committee’s options open to a 50 bps cut in September.

Powell's Jackson Hole speech made clear that rate cuts will begin in September. Most notable what he did not say: "gradual." Powell is keeping the door open to a larger cut in September.

When it comes to the Fed policy today, the question of whether or not these rules are good at telling us if we’re currently in a recession is almost besides the point.

Bostic and Musalem, two members on the hawkish side of the Committee, joined the rest of the Committee in signalling an openness to rate cuts in September.

The Committee continues to react to the July jobs numbers.

Just a couple of reactions to the jobs data last week from Barkin and Goolsbee, both downplaying the jobs report.

A 50 basis point cut should be the base case after today and further slowdowns in the remaining jobs and inflation reports between now and the September meeting may bolster the case for more drastic action this year.

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