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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

190 Posts
Preston Mui

In the wake of a hot CPI print, members openly pushed back the timeline for cuts.

A lot of Fedspeak this week, but not too much new was revealed. Committee members mostly confirmed what we thought their positions were.

This is overall a good jobs report. Job growth is solid, and there are no obvious signs of weakness.

A handful of Fedspeak this week. Not much unexpected was revealed.

There was a lot to like from the FOMC press conference this week. Here are the highlights from Powell’s press conference.

Light week for Fedspeak after the FOMC meeting and press conference. The only speaker this week was Bostic, who indicated that he projects one cut (two previously).

Our baseline forecast of the dots sees most of the dots holding steady, with some dots taking cuts off for this year. . This leaves three cuts as our baseline median dot—but just barely.

Powell did his best to be as boring as possible during Humphrey Hawkins, but he distinguished himself from some more hawkish statements from other committee members over the past few weeks.

After what appeared to be (on the surface and at first glance) a hot January, the labor market data for February 2024 signaled a return to the narrative we followed throughout last year: the labor market is slowing, but remains strong.

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