Preston Mui

It’s just a waiting game for the inflation data to show the effect of tariffs or the labor market starts to show signs of breaking.

The Fed will be able to lean on the still-low unemployment rate as a reason for them to hold of making any decisions about interest rates, but the outlook for the labor market is not great.

Last month, Senator John Kennedy (R-LA) introduced the Same Care, Lower Cost Act, which would direct the Secretary of Health and Human Services to implement site-neutral Medicare payments. Due to the breadth of services where payments could be made site-neutral under the Act, it is one of the most ambitious

A light week of Fedspeak, but a few notable pieces from some of the Committee.

There's still a lot of speculation around the effects of tariffs in this week's Fedspeak, but they're still waiting for the data. The uncertainty around other policies is also encouraging them to stay noncommital on rate movements.

This week, FOMC members continue to project confidence in the ability of the economy to withstand the risk of a recession from tariff policy, at least long enough to allow the Fed to figure out what to do.

The post-FOMC Fedspeak from the rest of the Committee was as noncommittal as the press conference.

Last week's data leaves our take on the FOMC meeting unchanged. There are updated charts and tables with labor market and inflation data from the previous week.

The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.