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Preston Mui

Senior Economist preston@employamerica.org

About

Preston is a Senior Economist specializing in macroeconomics and labor economics. In his role at Employ America he reports extensively on the Federal Reserve and analyzes labor market and macroeconomic data to guide our Federal Reserve advocacy and identify key macroeconomic dynamics. Preston also collaborates closely with our policy team to develop legislative proposals and analyse the macroeconomic impact of policy changes, and has a growing body of work exploring the relationship between full employment and productivity.

Preston holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. His academic work has been published in The Review of Economic Statistics and The Review of Economic Studies. He’s a trusted voice in economic policy media, and has been featured or cited in the New York Times, Washington Post, Marketplace, Barron’s, Axios, Reuters, AP News, and more.

Preston is based in Seattle, Washington, and enjoys birdwatching and racing criteriums.

Preston Mui's Work

188 Posts
Preston Mui

As the 119th Congress convenes, the House Budget Committee is considering several policies to cut federal spending by more than $5 trillion. One reported proposal is a potential site-neutral Medicare payment reform that is estimated to save Medicare $146 billion over ten years. The details on how House Republicans plan

Waller supports more rate cuts, isn't worried about tariffs.

The further slowing we were worried about last month, particularly in the prime-age employment rate, did not materialize. This sets back expectations for earlier and more rate cuts this year, but it’s certainly a good report for anyone concerned about the left tail of labor market risk.

A light week of Fedspeak heading into the New Year.

A handful of Fedspeak after the FOMC meeting, but nothing surprising.

If there’s one takeaway from this meeting, it’s that the Committee wants to position themselves much more cautiously on the inflation outlook, but the Fed is just a couple of bad labor market prints from having to put more cuts back on the table.

Our baseline projection is for the median rate dot at three 25 bp cuts in 2025. Our hawkish scenario puts the median member at two cuts for 2025.

Now that rate normalization is about to move into the next, slower phase, it is important that they do not predetermine the scale of normalization.

A lot of Fedspeak this week, enough to firm up our view that there will be a cut in December, with a January pause.

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