Economic Activity

New industrial production data are suggesting that domestic auto production may be recovering. This would be a much-needed disinflationary force against a backdrop where disinflation in new and used autos is threatening to stall out. Yesterday, we got new industrial production data from the Fed, and there is encouraging news

Three Big Themes We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption. After a correction earlier in the year, industrial production

We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption.

This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more

Summary: Consumer sentiment, jobless claims, and rig counts were the main sources of economic data this week and all came in soft. While some of the softness was likely noise (fraudulent unemployment insurance applications) and some of it predictable (lower oil prices leads to lower rig counts), the leg down

Investments in improving and expanding the grid are potentially a strong tailwind to the macroeconomic investment picture. Just electrical transmission, distribution and industrial apparatus represents around 5% of business equipment, around 2% fixed investment and around 0.3% of GDP...