Activity Monitor

Composite Activity rose ~0.14σ to +1.04σ since August 24.

Composite Activity rose ~0.02σ to +1.04σ since August 17.

Composite Activity rose ~0.02σ to +1.02σ since August 10.

Composite Activity rose ~0.18σ to +1.00σ since August 3.

Composite Activity rose ~0.07σ to +1.18σ since July 28.

Composite Activity rose ~0.05σ to +1.11σ since July 16

Composite Activity rose ~0.1σ to +1.07σ since July 6 — retail sales and regional Fed surveys drove it.

Composite Activity fell ~0.1σ to +0.98σ since June 29 — the June jobs report drove it, with prime-age EPOP down 0.6pp.

Composite Activity rose +0.1σ to +1.1σ since June 12 — Mfg restocking still strong, AI capex anchors the cycle. Iran MOU cuts left-tail risk; inflation risks still linger. 2 hikes from October remains base case, 3 shouldn't be ruled out.