Activity Monitor

Composite Activity rose +0.1σ to +1.1σ since June 12 — Mfg restocking still strong, AI capex anchors the cycle. Iran MOU cuts left-tail risk; inflation risks still linger. 2 hikes from October remains base case, 3 shouldn't be ruled out.

Composite Activity +0.21σ since May 29 — Labor + Services drove the pick-up. Mfg restocking intact, AI capex still anchors the cycle, Hormuz risk tilts inflationary rather than recessionary. October rate hike + 1 additional rate hike by 2027H1 is the new base case.

This monitor tracks US growth data in real-time, aligned to the timing of each release. It is a more timely & meaningful gauge of activity growth than GDP or other summary indicators. Please see here for more details. Summary: The data trends of the past two weeks continues to