Activity Indices

Composite Activity +0.21σ since May 29 — Labor + Services drove the pick-up. Mfg restocking intact, AI capex still anchors the cycle, Hormuz risk tilts inflationary rather than recessionary. October rate hike + 1 additional rate hike by 2027H1 is the new base case.

First edition under a refreshed monitor. Composite Activity +0.11σ since May 6 — broad pickup ex-housing. Manufacturing restocking continues, AI-boom continues to anchor the cycle, Hormuz risk tilts inflationary rather than recessionary. 2026Q4 rate hike remains the base case.

This monitor tracks US growth data in real-time, aligned to the timing of each release. It is a more timely & meaningful gauge of activity growth than GDP or other summary indicators. Please see here for more details. Summary: The data trends of the past two weeks continues to push