US Activity Update: Composite Holds Steady at +1.1σ; Q1 GDP Revised Up, Private Final Demand Revised Down - 6/29/2026
Composite Activity held at +1.1σ since June 18. 1Q2026 GDP was revised up to +2.1%, but consumption was revised down to +0.5% and private final demand to +1.7%. Mfg restocking still strong, AI capex anchors the cycle; regional Fed hiring broadened. 2-3 hikes from October remains base case.
