Employment
What the data tell us to expect this Friday — softer nonfarm payroll growth, a lower unemployment rate and a wage print that will give us an ok first-read on Q1 wage growth ahead of the more robust Employment Cost Index release later this month.
There's a great deal of literature on the connection between tighter credit conditions, economic activity, hiring, and inflation. Very large body of literature. The question is, how significant will this credit tightening be and how sustainable it will be. Jerome Powell, March 22, 2023 FOMC Press Conference In
This preview was published two business days ago for our Premium Donor distribution. Consider subscribing if you would like to support our public research and advocacy work, and receive early access to our data release previews. While the economic views expressed here remain unchanged, the policy implications have further cemented
For months now, the JOLTS job openings have told a divergent story from other labor market indicators, such as quits, hires, and employment-based measures. This month’s data release is no different. While all labor market indicators show a strong labor market, the difference is one of magnitude: the job
What the data tells us to expect for Friday: * Interpreting nonfarm payroll employment numbers will be messy due to the benchmark revision: The BLS folds in more comprehensive data each February on job creation. That can be especially substantial at the sectoral level and recast what the true employment trajectory
