Fed Expectations

Throughout the pandemic recovery, high inflation has been attributed to tight labor markets and high wage growth. Fed officials have, for months, maintained that the labor market needs to soften in order to bring down inflation. Commentators have pointed to high wage growth as a source of cost-push inflation: My

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic

Depending on who you ask, this week saw a “hawkish skip” or a “dovish pause” from the FOMC, who declined to raise rates above their current target range of 5% to 5.25%. Most of the week was covered by the Fed’s blackout period, however members Goolsbee, Barkin and

Depending on who you ask, this week saw a “hawkish skip” or a “dovish pause” from the FOMC, who declined to raise rates above their current target range of 5% to 5.25%.

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic

Growing, Slowing, Stabilizing. The economy is continuing to grow, but more slowly, and with fewer higher-order cycles and bullwhips swinging things around. Hiring remains strong, but has fallen from its recovery peak.

One popular narrative thread throughout the post-pandemic labor market was the “Great Resignation.” During the recovery, workers have been quitting their jobs at rates never seen before in the data. Many explanations have been proffered for this phenomenon, such as changing life priorities, workers reevaluating what they want out of