Federal Reserve

Members are mostly loathe to talk about rate cut timing, but reveal some thoughts about the trajectory of the economy.

Just two speeches from Lorie Logan and Tom Barkin this week.

There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations at this juncture. We should all be thrilled by the past 6-7 months of inflation data, but it is ultimately only 6-7

A very interesting week of Fedspeak, with several members revealing information about their dots.

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption

This iteration of the monitor also contains our updated view of where each member's dots are.