Federal Reserve

With most of the week covered by the Fed’s blackout period and FOMC meeting, updates are light on this week’s Fedspeak Monitor. On Wednesday, Chair Powell made sure during the press conference everyone understood that the decision to shift from: “We no longer state that we anticipate that

With most of the week covered by the Fed’s blackout period and FOMC meeting, updates are light on this week’s Fedspeak Monitor. On Wednesday, Chair Powell made sure during the press conference everyone understood that the decision to shift from:

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We’ve received a flurry of Fedspeak ahead of the blackout period. But given how little new macroeconomic data we have received since the SVB fallout (most March surveys will fail to capture an effect), we doubt that there has been much innovation from March interest rate projections to what

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

Summary: If we focus on the domestic labor that contributes to "Core Services Ex Housing PCE" output, we see that wage growth is no longer looking so hot. Labor cost pressures on "Core Services Ex Housing" PCE inflation are diminishing. Within the Fed's preferred