Federal Reserve

A wealth of Fedspeak this week has substantially clarified whose dots were whose on the most recent SEP. Goolsbee’s dovish speech strongly suggests the lone 4.875 dot was his, while Waller makes the case for further hikes. Bostic and Harker strongly implied their previous dots landed at 5.

Still too early to say about June dots, but this week’s Fedspeak suggests the Fed sees the turmoil in the wake of SVB as unlikely to widen, but of possible sectoral relevance as a shock to small businesses, as we noted last week. Bullard is worried about OPEC’s

We think it’s too early to make any judgments about June dots but it seems clearer that Susan Collins’ priors remain geared towards further tightening, while Neel Kashkari consistently sounded more cautious about macroeconomic implications from banking turmoil.

There's a great deal of literature on the connection between tighter credit conditions, economic activity, hiring, and inflation. Very large body of literature. The question is, how significant will this credit tightening be and how sustainable it will be. Jerome Powell, March 22, 2023 FOMC Press Conference In

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

If you enjoy our content and would like to support our work, we make additional content available for our donors. If you’re interested in gaining access to our Premium Donor distribution, please feel free to reach out to us here for more information. Summary The tension between the Fed’