Full Employment
“The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong, and not when you begin to see layoffs.”
We will be hoping for two things at the September meeting this week: a 50 bps cut and minimal upwards revisions to the unemployment rate projections in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).
When it comes to the Fed policy today, the question of whether or not these rules are good at telling us if we’re currently in a recession is almost besides the point.
Fire prevention—rather than fire fighting—is a better approach to risk management when it comes to the labor market. When it comes to unemployment risk, the Fed should be proactive and preemptive, not reactive.
With all of the softening in the labor market, it’s time for the Fed to actively discuss starting the process of rate normalization.
For decades, “jobless recovery” has been a watchword in the aftermath of each recession. But in the 1990s—and today—we saw a fully recovered labor market.
"The Dream of the 90's" examines the macroeconomic conditions that led to strong growth in the late-1990s and what policies can revive that productivity growth today.
The productivity data is messy and often should not be taken at face value. Our "Cautious Case For Productivity Optimism" in the summer of last year flagged three forces that should support better productivity growth in 2023 and 2024 have been cautious optimists about productivity improvement for some
