Jobs Day
Key Takeaways: * This post is a follow up to our piece last week outlining why Reported Quarterly Growth (RQG) is a better approach to accounting for data changes more transparently. * This methodology allows us to account for revisions more robustly and to run rigorous back-tests and stress-tests to see how
Revisions to macroeconomic data happen. Frequently. To almost all major releases, not just nonfarm payroll employment. Sometimes those revisions are large, and they are often largest at critical inflection points in the business cycle. Some of the largest revisions to employment and GDP transpired around the 2007-09 Great Recession, where
On the whole, this is a good jobs report. It’s hard to find much fault with the data here, and it significantly diminishes the prospects of a July cut.
The Fed will be able to lean on the still-low unemployment rate as a reason for them to hold of making any decisions about interest rates, but the outlook for the labor market is not great.
So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.
