Jobs Day

On the whole, this is a good jobs report. It’s hard to find much fault with the data here, and it significantly diminishes the prospects of a July cut.

The Fed will be able to lean on the still-low unemployment rate as a reason for them to hold of making any decisions about interest rates, but the outlook for the labor market is not great.

So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.

So far, the labor market has taken the slowdown in labor demand in the healthiest way possible. If the labor market slows more than expected, the Fed may not have the luxury of patience anymore.