Labor Markets

As the July meeting approaches and Powell testifies in front of Congress at this week’s Humphrey Hawkins hearings, Powell and the rest of the Committee should keep the door open to a cut at the July meeting.

With all of the softening in the labor market, it’s time for the Fed to actively discuss starting the process of rate normalization.

The totality of the evidence points more towards a cooling (but still good!) labor market than heating up, despite the payroll prints.

The data is consistent with those hoping for a soft landing—and soft landing cuts.

This is overall a good jobs report. Job growth is solid, and there are no obvious signs of weakness.

After what appeared to be (on the surface and at first glance) a hot January, the labor market data for February 2024 signaled a return to the narrative we followed throughout last year: the labor market is slowing, but remains strong.

The headline January labor market data was strong, but there are still some signs of weakness under the surface.

In December, the labor market risks shifted further over towards unemployment.