Labor Markets

The data is consistent with those hoping for a soft landing—and soft landing cuts.

This is overall a good jobs report. Job growth is solid, and there are no obvious signs of weakness.

After what appeared to be (on the surface and at first glance) a hot January, the labor market data for February 2024 signaled a return to the narrative we followed throughout last year: the labor market is slowing, but remains strong.

The headline January labor market data was strong, but there are still some signs of weakness under the surface.

In December, the labor market risks shifted further over towards unemployment.

There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations at this juncture. We should all be thrilled by the past 6-7 months of inflation data, but it is ultimately only 6-7

What steps should the Fed take to preserve the hard-earned recovery in the labor market? We present a path for the Fed in 2024.

After a somewhat worrying October report, November’s labor market data shows lower recession risk.