Labor Markets

In December, the labor market risks shifted further over towards unemployment.

There will be a time and a place for a more thorough retrospective of this still-unfolding (dis)inflationary episode, but it would be premature to make strong declarations at this juncture. We should all be thrilled by the past 6-7 months of inflation data, but it is ultimately only 6-7

What steps should the Fed take to preserve the hard-earned recovery in the labor market? We present a path for the Fed in 2024.

After a somewhat worrying October report, November’s labor market data shows lower recession risk.

Summary Amidst all of the understandable concern with inflation and recession risks, the evidence continues to foretell a welcome inflection point on the horizon—a rare procyclical upturn in productivity growth. We continue to see signs that a maturing labor market—in which employment rates fully recover from recessionary damage

Summary Amidst all of the understandable concern with inflation and recession risks, the evidence continues to foretell a welcome inflection point on the horizon—a rare procyclical upturn in productivity growth. We continue to see signs that a maturing labor market—in which employment rates fully recover from recessionary damage

The labor market is really softening now.