We see two individually sufficient conditions for the Fed to proceed with a frontloaded interest rate cut in September above 25 basis points: either (1) the unemployment rate is 4.2% or above, or (2) the prime-age 25-54 employment rate declines in...
Thanks to outperforming supply-side dynamics, the labor market has already rebalanced. At the same time, income growth is still decelerating and the lagging bits of the inflation overshoot...
Almost as notable as the things Powell said were the things he did not. Between now and September, Fedspeak should focus on keeping the Committee’s options open to a 50 bps cut in September.
Most of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges are sourced from Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, but Producer Price Index (PPI) input data is of increasing relevance,...
