NFP
The following post was released to our MacroSuite subscribers subscribers on 2/25/2025. If you'd like to start a 90-day free trial of our exclusive content, you can do so using this link. If you have any questions or would like to see samples of our past
Following up on our publication of "real-time" payroll growth time series that cut through data revision issues (see more here) , we are now publishing regular updates of our forward-looking payrolls views to our MacroSuite subscribers. Feb 2025 Baseline Views (Assume No Revisions) * Nonfarm Payrolls: +160k monthly gain. We
The totality of the evidence points more towards a cooling (but still good!) labor market than heating up, despite the payroll prints.
After what appeared to be (on the surface and at first glance) a hot January, the labor market data for February 2024 signaled a return to the narrative we followed throughout last year: the labor market is slowing, but remains strong.
In December, the labor market risks shifted further over towards unemployment.
After a somewhat worrying October report, November’s labor market data shows lower recession risk.
The labor market is really softening now.
The September 2023 labor market data continued to show a strong labor market. The headline unemployment rate remained steady at 3.8%, and the establishment survey showed an eye-popping 336,000 jobs added in September—alongside an upwards revision of 79,000 and 40,000 jobs in July and August.
