Systematic Monitors

This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic

Cuts in 2023 is not in anyone’s non-market risk-neutral expectation for FOMC dots.We had a flurry of Fedspeak this week, with more than half the Committee making speeches or taking interviews.

Cuts in 2023 is not in anyone’s non-market risk-neutral expectation for FOMC dots. We had a flurry of Fedspeak this week, with more than half the Committee making speeches or taking interviews.

Three Big Themes We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption. After a correction earlier in the year, industrial production

We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption.