Systematic Monitors

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic

Depending on who you ask, this week saw a “hawkish skip” or a “dovish pause” from the FOMC, who declined to raise rates above their current target range of 5% to 5.25%. Most of the week was covered by the Fed’s blackout period, however members Goolsbee, Barkin and

Depending on who you ask, this week saw a “hawkish skip” or a “dovish pause” from the FOMC, who declined to raise rates above their current target range of 5% to 5.25%.

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. Most of the Personal Consumption