Economic Activity

Composite Activity fell ~0.1σ to +0.98σ since June 29 — the June jobs report drove it, with prime-age EPOP down 0.6pp.

Composite Activity held at +1.1σ since June 18. 1Q2026 GDP was revised up to +2.1%, but consumption was revised down to +0.5% and private final demand to +1.7%. Mfg restocking still strong, AI capex anchors the cycle; regional Fed hiring broadened. 2-3 hikes from October remains base case.

Composite Activity rose +0.1σ to +1.1σ since June 12 — Mfg restocking still strong, AI capex anchors the cycle. Iran MOU cuts left-tail risk; inflation risks still linger. 2 hikes from October remains base case, 3 shouldn't be ruled out.

First edition under a refreshed monitor. Composite Activity +0.11σ since May 6 — broad pickup ex-housing. Manufacturing restocking continues, AI-boom continues to anchor the cycle, Hormuz risk tilts inflationary rather than recessionary. 2026Q4 rate hike remains the base case.

This monitor tracks US growth data in real-time, aligned to the timing of each release. It is a more timely & meaningful gauge of activity growth than GDP or other summary indicators. Please see here for more details. Summary: The data trends of the past two weeks continues to