May FOMC Preview
The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.
Labor Market Recap April 2025
So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.
March 2025 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Anticipating March Weakness and Sharp February Revisions.
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price,...
A Slowdown in Hiring is Dangerous Even Without Layoffs
Layoffs are important, but focusing on layoffs risks missing the other part of the equation: hiring.
The Supply Problem In The Fed's Framework - Part 2: Did The Fed Miss A Productivity Boom? The Future Warrants More Attention & Agility
This is the second post in our multi-part series on the Fed's 2025 framework review. Part 1 can be found here. The Fed has an opportunity...
