Fedspeak Monitor

Powell's Jackson Hole speech made clear that rate cuts will begin in September. Most notable what he did not say: "gradual." Powell is keeping the door open to a larger cut in September.

Bostic and Musalem, two members on the hawkish side of the Committee, joined the rest of the Committee in signalling an openness to rate cuts in September.

The Committee continues to react to the July jobs numbers.

Just a couple of reactions to the jobs data last week from Barkin and Goolsbee, both downplaying the jobs report.

Another week of Fedspeak hearing from the dovish side of the Committee, who are mostly pushing back on July.

Powell laid the groundwork for rate cuts this week. While he wasn't specific about timing at the Humphrey Hawkins hearings, he was dovish enough that the subsequent inflation release solidifies a September start to the cutting cycle.

While still no one is willing to explicitly say it's time to go, the Fedspeak leaned dovish this week.

Since the June FOMC meeting and the May CPI release, there's been a noticeable shift in tone amongst the doves in the Committee.

Inflation optimism among the doves is back, but the hawks will want to see many months of good inflation before they're sure.