Monthly employment reports provide crucial snapshots of labor market health, but headline numbers often mask important underlying trends. We assess wage growth patterns to determine whether workers are receiving their fair share of economic growth, and analyze labor force participation rates to identify barriers to employment.
Jobs Day
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59 Posts
Jobs Day
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Aug 04, 2023
The July 2023 labor market data continues to confirm the story we’ve been telling for months: while slowing down, the labor market remains strong, with high levels of employment amidst a disinflationary environment. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.5% from 3.6%, consistent with our preview, and
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NFP
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Aug 02, 2023
The data from the June labor market shows continued strength in the labor market, with strong employment and wage growth. The headline unemployment number fell to 3.6% from 3.7% and the establishment survey showed a solid 209,000 jobs added in June, consistent with our preview. While below
Jun 02, 2023
The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.
Jobs Day
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Jun 01, 2023
This preview was originally published two days ago. It has been updated to reflect the additional information from JOLTS and the flurry of Fedspeak yesterday. Baseline View Slower job growth, slower wage growth, an unemployment rate that might fall to a new record low. In light of mixed JOLTS report
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Jobs Day
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May 30, 2023
We are now at the point where many labor market utilization numbers—unemployment, employment, participation, full-time employment—are beyond pre-pandemic levels. We shouldn’t treat 2019 as a goal to return to; new highs are both possible and desirable.
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Employment
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May 03, 2023
What the data tell us to expect this Friday — softer nonfarm payroll growth, a higher unemployment rate and a potential for permanent job losers to rise.
