Core Services Ex Housing

We reconstruct the White House’s core non-housing services wage index. We walk through the construction of this series, which is available for premium donors.

Summary: If we focus on the domestic labor that contributes to "Core Services Ex Housing PCE" output, we see that wage growth is no longer looking so hot. Labor cost pressures on "Core Services Ex Housing" PCE inflation are diminishing. Within the Fed's preferred

Note: This post has been revised to reflect some updating issues we previously had. Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative

This preview was published three days ago for our Premium Donor distribution. Consider subscribing if you would like to support our public research and advocacy work, and receive early access to our data release previews. Summary: The risks for March and Q1 core inflation have remained asymmetrically tilted to the