CPI

This post was originally published two days ago for Employ America donors. If you’re interested in early and extended access to our content, email us at donate@employamerica.org Summary: The risks for February and Q1 core inflation remain asymmetrically tilted to the upside relative to consensus forecasts. We

Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on the food and energy impulse from what we might call the "Putin shock" to key commodities. At the same time,

We're doing the dirty work of translating inflation inputs into PCE in real-time for you. There are some dark parts of PCE not related to CPI and PPI; we'll be back with an update when PCE is released. The associated heatmaps are dense, but they aim

We're doing the dirty work of translating CPI to PCE in real-time for you. We'll be back on Thursday to provide an update after the PPI release, which will inevitably reshape the nowcast. The associated heatmaps are somewhat dense and intense: they give a holistic view

Summary: Relative to consensus forecasts, the risks for January & Q1 core inflation are now asymmetrically tilted to the upside (Jan core CPI ~ 0.4%). While we don't think the causes for upside risk are a sound basis for hawkish panic, the Fed would certainly be vulnerable to

We'll have our usual monthly inflation preview soon, but for those curious, here's a bit of a preview to the preview... We all should take heart in how 2022H2 highlighted the possibility and plausibility of a 'soft landing'—disinflation without more unemployment—at odds

For those who have followed my Twitter feed, you will know that I have long pointed out that "narrow vs broad-based," "transitory vs persistent," and "supply vs demand" are not three ways of saying the same thing.