Fed Expectations

Growing, Slowing, Stabilizing. The economy is continuing to grow, but more slowly, and with fewer higher-order cycles and bullwhips swinging things around. Hiring remains strong, but has fallen from its recovery peak.

One popular narrative thread throughout the post-pandemic labor market was the “Great Resignation.” During the recovery, workers have been quitting their jobs at rates never seen before in the data. Many explanations have been proffered for this phenomenon, such as changing life priorities, workers reevaluating what they want out of

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic

This weeks’ Fedspeak comes against the backdrop of a surprisingly neutral Jobs Day report. This week saw communication from Goolsbee, Barkin, Jefferson, Collins, Bowman, Harker, Master and Bullard.

This weeks’ Fedspeak comes against the backdrop of a surprisingly neutral Jobs Day report. This week saw communication from Goolsbee, Barkin, Jefferson, Collins, Bowman, Harker, Master and Bullard.

The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.

We systematically track the evolution of financial conditions and their underlying drivers. We intend to share regular updates of these systematic monitors with our donors on a more exclusive basis (so long as it does not compromise our public mission). This monitor is a reflection of how we think macroeconomic