Federal Reserve

Powell laid the groundwork for rate cuts this week. While he wasn't specific about timing at the Humphrey Hawkins hearings, he was dovish enough that the subsequent inflation release solidifies a September start to the cutting cycle.

As the July meeting approaches and Powell testifies in front of Congress at this week’s Humphrey Hawkins hearings, Powell and the rest of the Committee should keep the door open to a cut at the July meeting.

While still no one is willing to explicitly say it's time to go, the Fedspeak leaned dovish this week.

With all of the softening in the labor market, it’s time for the Fed to actively discuss starting the process of rate normalization.

Since the June FOMC meeting and the May CPI release, there's been a noticeable shift in tone amongst the doves in the Committee.

In this piece, we take a deeper dive into the finer details of the national accounts to gain some insight into how exactly monetary policy is restricting investment.

Inflation optimism among the doves is back, but the hawks will want to see many months of good inflation before they're sure.

If the next month delivers either another round of soft inflation data, or a weak jobs report, the FOMC should be prepared to deliver a cut in July. If they continue to delay beginning rate cuts to gain certainty, they should consider a 50 bps cut for their first cut.

Our view of where the new dots are.