Fedspeak

Our baseline projection is for the median rate dot at three 25 bp cuts in 2025. Our hawkish scenario puts the median member at two cuts for 2025.

Now that rate normalization is about to move into the next, slower phase, it is important that they do not predetermine the scale of normalization.

A lot of Fedspeak this week, enough to firm up our view that there will be a cut in December, with a January pause.

A light week of Fedspeak with Thanksgiving. Also released last week were the minutes from November's FOMC meeting. It's clear that neutral rate uncertainty is going to play a large role in this cutting cycle.

With another hot PCE print on the way, December is looking less-sure. No one is saying that they want to pause outright, but the door to a pause is wide open.

Powell made the headlines with his rejection of any notion that President-elect Trump could force him to leave, but beyond that the November FOMC press conference was fairly boring (in a good way).

After the excitement at the September meeting,  November is going to be relatively less exciting.

This is the last chance for Fedspeak before the pre-November meeting blackout period. This week we mostly heard from the hawkish side of the committee, all of whom are emphasizing a gradual path of rate cuts.