Labor Markets

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

We are now at the point where many labor market utilization numbers—unemployment, employment, participation, full-time employment—are beyond pre-pandemic levels. We shouldn’t treat 2019 as a goal to return to; new highs are both possible and desirable.

What the data tell us to expect this Friday — softer nonfarm payroll growth, a higher unemployment rate and a potential for permanent job losers to rise.

In our labor market recap for March 2023, I described the state of the labor market as “a goldilocks labor market, with strong employment, increasing labor supply, and sustainable levels of wage growth.” However, there is at least one cloud in an otherwise clear sky: the number of unemployed permanent

This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,