Labor Markets

The data from the May labor market shows continued renormalization of the labor market, with strong employment, continued slowing of wage growth, and reduced churn.

This preview was originally published two days ago. It has been updated to reflect the additional information from JOLTS and the flurry of Fedspeak yesterday. Baseline View Slower job growth, slower wage growth, an unemployment rate that might fall to a new record low. In light of mixed JOLTS report

Contrary to the expectations of Fed officials, labor force participation growth has been strong over the last six months. In this piece, I use Current Population Survey microdata, correct for measurement issues, and show that an increase in labor force entry played a significant role in this recent…

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

We are now at the point where many labor market utilization numbers—unemployment, employment, participation, full-time employment—are beyond pre-pandemic levels. We shouldn’t treat 2019 as a goal to return to; new highs are both possible and desirable.

What the data tell us to expect this Friday — softer nonfarm payroll growth, a higher unemployment rate and a potential for permanent job losers to rise.