Labor Markets
At the Senate Banking Committee’s Humphrey Hawkins hearing on Tuesday, Senator Warren questioned Chair Powell about the implications of the Fed’s projections for unemployment, which call for an unemployment rate of 4.6% by year’s end, around an additional two million people without jobs. Powell was resistant
The data from the February labor market show continued labor market strength. Almost all employment-based indicators show improvement from the previous month, even as the general trend of wage growth is downwards. The headline unemployment number rose from 3.4% to 3.6%, but this was due to a strong
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.
Just how tight is the labor market? It depends on which measurement you pick! Some economists look to the unemployment rate, or to its difference from some estimated, but not measured, “natural level” to try to assess whether the labor market and economy are in equilibrium (we are not fans
How do we evaluate model choice under uncertainty as data points are still coming in? If one model implies prescriptions with direct, catastrophic welfare costs that are empirically difficult to reverse, should the consequences affect how much weight we give the model?
Labor Market Recap January 2023: The data from the January labor market show an unequivocally strong labor market. Nearly every indicator from every data source is showing strong employment against a backdrop of slowing nominal price and wage growth. Although the consensus anticipated an uptick, the unemployment rate fell to
In our previous piece in our vacancies series, we took a deep dive into Ball, Leigh and Mishra (2022), “Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era,” a paper presented at the Brookings Papers on Economic Activity Conference in September 2022. The paper, which warned that the Fed’s...
