Last Updated: Saturday, August 26, 2023
Next Update: Saturday, September 2, 2023

The "Goal vs. Dot" column explains how we are thinking of our estimate of a given member's current dot to where they would like to see interest rate policy actually go. A "O" means we expect the dot to roughly align with their views, while a "+" and a "-" indicate, respectively, that we believe the member to be more hawkish or more dovish than their current dot.

This week saw a flurry of Fedspeak as policymakers gathered for the summer monetary policy summit at Jackson Hole. Hawks like Mester and Collins gave arguments for why monetary policy may need to tighten further, while Barkin and Bullard warned about the possible monetary policy impacts of the likelihood of re-accelerating growth through the end of the year. Goolsbee, astutely, flagged the risks to the inflation picture posed by possible future supply shocks to already-supply-constrained industries like auto production. Powell noted that rates are firmly in restrictive territory, and that, per Fed models, that territory will only get more restrictive if inflation continues to ease. The new Fedspeak has not led us to change our expectations for the September dots.