Monetary Policy

Today's data largely confirmed what we've known for some time now: the Fed's restrictive policies are restricting the level and growth of homebuilding activity in the US economy. But when we think holistically about the relevance of homebuilding to price stability, the restrictive effects

As the July meeting approaches and Powell testifies in front of Congress at this week’s Humphrey Hawkins hearings, Powell and the rest of the Committee should keep the door open to a cut at the July meeting.

In this piece, we take a deeper dive into the finer details of the national accounts to gain some insight into how exactly monetary policy is restricting investment.

What steps should the Fed take to preserve the hard-earned recovery in the labor market? We present a path for the Fed in 2024.

In this piece, we’ll take a look at how the Fed’s thinking on the labor market has changed as the data validated or disproved various hypotheses in 2023.

This is the first of our Fed Research Roundup series. In this post, we examine the question of whether monetary policy constrains the supply-side, and what that means for inflation.

In a recent Barron’s article, I examined why last year’s predictions that fighting inflation would require an increase in the unemployment rate went so wrong. The flaws in these predictions can be traced back to three ideas: first, that vacancies are a good measure of labor market tightness; second

Summary Inflation and interest rates remain high enough that now is not a time for 'soft landing' victory laps, but the growing and broadening evidence of price deceleration warrants a deeper dive. If the Fed's role in achieving disinflation runs through "cooling real demand,"

Summary: If we focus on the domestic labor that contributes to "Core Services Ex Housing PCE" output, we see that wage growth is no longer looking so hot. Labor cost pressures on "Core Services Ex Housing" PCE inflation are diminishing. Within the Fed's preferred