Preston Mui

A lot of Fedspeak this week, enough to firm up our view that there will be a cut in December, with a January pause.

The labor market is treading water at this point. It’s not drowning, but it’s unclear how long it can remain in this state.

If policy is to have a significant impact on medical services inflation, and by extension aggregate inflation, it is not enough to only tackle costs in the public sector. Policy needs to ensure cost control in the private sector as well.

A light week of Fedspeak with Thanksgiving. Also released last week were the minutes from November's FOMC meeting. It's clear that neutral rate uncertainty is going to play a large role in this cutting cycle.

The 1990s saw an extended period of full employment, high growth, and low inflation. Part of this achievement was attributable to healthcare cost control efforts undertaken by both public- and private-sector actors.

With another hot PCE print on the way, December is looking less-sure. No one is saying that they want to pause outright, but the door to a pause is wide open.

Powell made the headlines with his rejection of any notion that President-elect Trump could force him to leave, but beyond that the November FOMC press conference was fairly boring (in a good way).

After the excitement at the September meeting,  November is going to be relatively less exciting.

Due to the October payroll number marred by hurricanes and the Boeing strike, the real signal comes from the household survey (where those who are absent due to weather are still counted as employed) and the negative revisions to previous months.