Fedspeak

The post-FOMC Fedspeak from the rest of the Committee was as noncommittal as the press conference.

Last week's data leaves our take on the FOMC meeting unchanged. There are updated charts and tables with labor market and inflation data from the previous week.

The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.

The Fedspeak this week is still: wait and see, and we care most about keeping inflation under control.

The Committee is still super worried about long-term inflation expectations, and everyone from Goolsbee to Kashkari say that keeping those down is the highest priority.

Despite the tariff announcement, Fedspeak is nearly indistinguishable from last week.

We're starting to get more color from Fed officials about how they see tariffs playing out. Everyone is qualifying their comments with heavy pinches of salt.

We have updated our dot estimates with the March SEP dots.

A light week of Fedspeak this week, with little new revelations.