Inflation

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

It has now been almost exactly one year since the Fed started raising interest rates to combat inflation. When they started raising rates, the unemployment rate was at 3.6%. In February, the unemployment rate was… also at 3.6%. Even construction employment, a notoriously interest rate sensitive sector, remains

Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. If you are interested in

The economy, as we all know, is mainly made up of goods and services that people buy and sell. This is an intuitive divide: when you pay for something – whether you are a business, household, or government – it’s either an object or an action, and its prices are based

This post was originally published two days ago for Employ America donors. If you’re interested in early and extended access to our content, email us at donate@employamerica.org Summary: The risks for February and Q1 core inflation remain asymmetrically tilted to the upside relative to consensus forecasts. We

“For the first time, we [central bankers] have had to really study [supply chains] carefully” - Chair Powell As we have argued, a substantial portion of post-pandemic inflation can be traced to supply chain disruption. What was a loosely woven mesh pre-pandemic snapped and disconnected in different places, for different