Inflation
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. If you are interested in
The economy, as we all know, is mainly made up of goods and services that people buy and sell. This is an intuitive divide: when you pay for something – whether you are a business, household, or government – it’s either an object or an action, and its prices are based
This post was originally published two days ago for Employ America donors. If you’re interested in early and extended access to our content, email us at donate@employamerica.org Summary: The risks for February and Q1 core inflation remain asymmetrically tilted to the upside relative to consensus forecasts. We
“For the first time, we [central bankers] have had to really study [supply chains] carefully” - Chair Powell As we have argued, a substantial portion of post-pandemic inflation can be traced to supply chain disruption. What was a loosely woven mesh pre-pandemic snapped and disconnected in different places, for different
Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on the food and energy impulse from what we might call the "Putin shock" to key commodities. At the same time,
The Auto Market Is Missing About Five Million Domestically-Produced Vehicles
Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states.
Core-Cast is our nowcasting model to track the Fed's preferred inflation gauges before and through their release date. The heatmaps below give a comprehensive view of how inflation components and themes are performing relative to what transpires when inflation is running at 2%. If you are interested in
