Preview

What the data tell us to expect this Friday — softer nonfarm payroll growth, a higher unemployment rate and a potential for permanent job losers to rise.

If you enjoy our content and would like to support our work, we make additional content available for our donors. If you’re interested in gaining access to our Premium Donor distribution, please feel free to reach out to us here for more information. What's Changed Since The

This preview was published three days ago for our Premium Donor distribution. Consider subscribing if you would like to support our public research and advocacy work, and receive early access to our data release previews. Summary: The risks for March and Q1 core inflation have remained asymmetrically tilted to the

What the data tell us to expect this Friday — softer nonfarm payroll growth, a lower unemployment rate and a wage print that will give us an ok first-read on Q1 wage growth ahead of the more robust Employment Cost Index release later this month.

Journalists can pretty much pre-write their headlines given the spike in oil prices. Year-over-year headline inflation readings are set to make new highs, potentially breaching 8% based on the food and energy impulse from what we might call the "Putin shock" to key commodities. At the same time,