Last Updated: Saturday, September 2, 2023
Next Update: Saturday, September 9, 2023

The "Goal vs. Dot" column explains how we are thinking of our estimate of a given member's current dot to where they would like to see interest rate policy actually go. A "O" means we expect the dot to roughly align with their views, while a "+" and a "-" indicate, respectively, that we believe the member to be more hawkish or more dovish than their current dot.

This week saw a flood of Fedspeak, with statements from nearly half the FOMC. They covered a wide range of topics, from the security threat posed by quantum computing to optimism about achieving the “golden path”.  Most reiterated a commitment to data dependence, and a need to wait for the totality of the data to come in before making decisions about the September meeting.

That doesn’t mean they haven’t been talking about the monetary policy outlook though. Even hawkish members like Mester and Logan acknowledged this week that a September skip could make sense — as long as we don’t start calling it the end of the hiking cycle yet. Goolsbee, Waller and Daly are all already staking out positions on how long exactly overnight rates need to remain at their current elevated levels as measured inflation continues to fall.

Today we also enter the Fed’a blackout period, which means that next week we will have an FOMC Preview rather than a Fedspeak Monitor.