Industrial Production Monitor: February 2023
In order to analyze how these shortages resolve themselves we have been tracking reported shortages and comparing them to indices of industrial production and prices faced by producers.
Alex Williams
188 postsIf A Model Told You To Jump Off A Bridge Would You Do It?
How do we evaluate model choice under uncertainty as data points are still coming in? If one model implies prescriptions with direct, catastrophic welfare costs that are empirically difficult to reverse, should the consequences affect how much weight we give the model?
Does Unemployment Actually Have To Rise For Wage Growth To Slow?
Wage growth is slowing. Job openings are increasing, unemployment is holding, and wage growth is slowing. This was supposed to be impossible–so what does it mean that it’s happening?
What Is "Core PCE Services Ex-Housing" Anyway?
The Fed is worried that inflation will continue until wage growth comes down or unemployment ticks up based on the continued strength in “Core PCE Services ex-Housing”. But the Fed is wrong to be so confident.
