Wages

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,

We reconstruct the White House’s core non-housing services wage index. We walk through the construction of this series, which is available for premium donors.

Summary: If we focus on the domestic labor that contributes to "Core Services Ex Housing PCE" output, we see that wage growth is no longer looking so hot. Labor cost pressures on "Core Services Ex Housing" PCE inflation are diminishing. Within the Fed's preferred

The data from the March labor market show continued labor market strength. As was true last month, almost all employment-based indicators show improvement from the previous month, even as the general trend of wage growth is downwards. The headline unemployment number fell from 3.6% to 3.5% (as we

Welcome to our State Space series. Here you will find how we’re thinking about the pathways and scenarios that could take us to critical economic states. We will never settle for "it's too unlikely." We try to reason backwards from the most important (tail-risk) scenarios,