This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more details about how to interpret this information.

Bottom Line From Last Four Days:

The evidence of further economic deceleration is accumulating but it's far from clear that the slowdown will ultimately yield to a recession. Our second derivative index (now up to +0.6) shows that the pace of economic deceleration is also beginning to fade.

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