Planes, Constraints, and Automobiles: What to Look For in a Hot November CPI Print
It is key for commentators and policymakers to bear in mind that "transitory vs. persistent" is not the same debate as "narrow vs. broad-based."
Alex Williams
188 postsQE Magic, Used Cars, and Omicron: Tapering While Preserving Optionality
The policy mistake worth worrying about isn’t the speed of taper per se; it's the signal that taper sends about the timing of liftoff in interest rate policy.
"Real Wages" and Aggregation: A Methodological Mess
“Real wages” are often presented as a neutral measure of the ability of households to buy definite quantities of real goods after adjusting for changes in both prices and wages. In reality, "real wages" explain far less about household economic well-being than these stories confidently imply.
What Will Hot Q4 Inflation Tell Us About 2022 Dynamics?
As the year ends, the final three inflation prints are more likely to be on the hotter side of what policymakers are comfortable with, especially due to developments in motor vehicle and air travel prices.
Potential Output and Port Capacity
If we are going to take the supply side seriously - something that may have to happen to support the kind of demand-side policy required for maximum employment - we need to get serious about measuring it.
