This monitor is a reflection of how we update our assessments of economic growth in real-time as we get meaningful updates from macroeconomic data releases. It provides a more timely and meaningful gauge of economic activity growth than what GDP and similar summary indicators provide. Please see here for more details about how to interpret this information.
After revisions to the seasonal factors, jobless claims paint a more ominous picture, but one that is at odds with the bulk of macroeconomic data captured in our activity indices. Home sales, rig counts, and the details of the Philly Fed's manufacturing data are all showing signs of a stabilizing slowdown. Housing, manufacturing, and possibly energy could prove to be less of a drag on growth over the coming 1-2 quarters.
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