The Fed's preferred inflation gauges are deflators of Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the consumer spending component of GDP. These price indices are based on a few input data sources, including the Consumer Price Indices (CPI),Producer Price Indices (PPI), and Import Price Index (IPI), but are methodologically distinct from them. We usually have a decent read of PCE deflators after CPI (which tends to be the first inflation gauge released), but there are a lot of controls and calculations to account for. When updating views month to month about inflation, the dirty work here matters.
Core Cast
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280 Posts
Dec 08, 2025
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like to become a MacroSuite subscriber to get
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Dec 03, 2025
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Nov 25, 2025
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Oct 20, 2025
Sep 30, 2025
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price, and GDP data, along with previews and final recaps. If you'd like to become a MacroSuite subscriber to get
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Sep 11, 2025
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Sep 10, 2025