May FOMC Preview
The Fed is in a very difficult position. They are dealing with an economy that is facing both a negative growth shock and an inflationary shock at the same time, and are equipped only with the blunt tool of monetary policy.
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Labor Market Recap April 2025
Preston Mui
— 6 min read
So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.
March 2025 Core-Cast Post-PCE: Anticipating March Weakness and Sharp February Revisions.
Skanda Amarnath
— 5 min read
Core-Cast is our model and publication series for nowcasting the Fed's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation gauges. We update our estimates from CPI, PPI, Import Price,...
A Slowdown in Hiring is Dangerous Even Without Layoffs
Preston Mui
— 4 min read
Layoffs are important, but focusing on layoffs risks missing the other part of the equation: hiring.
