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Growth Expectations

| Aug 03, 2026

US Activity Update: Composite Index Edges Up Again - 8/3/2026

by Vikas Patel

Composite Activity rose ~0.07σ to +1.18σ since July 28.

| Jul 28, 2026

US Activity Update: Composite Index Edges Up a Bit, Mostly Driven by Regional Fed Surveys - 7/28/2026

by Vikas Patel

Composite Activity rose ~0.05σ to +1.11σ since July 16

| Jul 16, 2026

US Activity Update: Retail Sales Solid; Ceasefire Breaks and Hormuz Closes Again - 7/16/2026

by Vikas Patel

Composite Activity rose ~0.1σ to +1.07σ since July 6 — retail sales and regional Fed surveys drove it.

| Dec 09, 2025

Financial Conditions Monitor: A New Growth Narrative Is Getting Priced In - December 9, 2025

by Skanda Amarnath

| Dec 01, 2025

Financial Conditions Monitor: Markets Settle At A 3% Terminal. Will The Fed Slow Cuts As We Get Closer To Neutral? - December 1, 2025

by Skanda Amarnath

| Nov 24, 2025

Financial Conditions Monitor: The Fed Pivot That Wasn't: A December Cut Is Coming But FCI Still Tightened - November 24, 2025

by Skanda Amarnath

| Nov 17, 2025

Financial Conditions Monitor: A Quiet Week Despite Growing Signs Of A Fed Pivot - November 17, 2025

by Skanda Amarnath

| Nov 10, 2025

Financial Conditions Monitor: Modest Risk Correction Driven By Corporate Credit - November 10, 2025

by Skanda Amarnath

| Nov 03, 2025

Financial Conditions Monitor: Tech + Mag 7 > 50% of S&P 500. AI Will Drive The The Business Cycle. Powell Gives The Hawks A Voice - November 3, 2025

by Skanda Amarnath

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