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Lately, everyone has been looking closely for reliable recession indicators. We have been as well, but when we look at the overall labor market and investment picture, more and more things seem to be saying “No Recession.”

In a usual business cycle, investment in industrial equipment leads investment in manufacturing structures as businesses scale capacity up to meet demand. Today we’re seeing manufacturing investment explode upwards even as investment in equipment slows. This may be an early indication that CHIPS...

New industrial production data are suggesting that domestic auto production may be recovering. This would be a much-needed disinflationary force against a backdrop where disinflation in new and used autos is threatening to stall out. Yesterday, we got new industrial production data from the Fed, and there is encouraging news

Three Big Themes We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption. After a correction earlier in the year, industrial production

We are starting to see some evidence of the long hoped-for supply response to pandemic price increases in this month’s monitor. One long-running shortage ended, leaving only three 2+ year long shortages remaining from the pandemic disruption.

At Employ America, we have argued that shortages of physical productive capacity played a major role in the inflation seen during and after the recovery from the pandemic recession. In order to analyze the impacts of shortages and their resolution, we have been tracking reported shortages and comparing them to

This is part of our Supply Chain Monitoring series usually made available exclusively for our Premium Donors. If you’re interested in gaining access to our Premium Donor distribution, please feel free to reach out to us here for more information. The semiconductor shortage has been a major narrative throughout

The Auto Market Is Missing About Five Million Domestically-Produced Vehicles

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