Employment

The Fed will be able to lean on the still-low unemployment rate as a reason for them to hold of making any decisions about interest rates, but the outlook for the labor market is not great.

So far, pain from the tariffs has not shown up in any obvious way in the labor market data, and it may not for a few months.

Layoffs are important, but focusing on layoffs risks missing the other part of the equation: hiring.

This is our last snapshot of the labor market before we really start seeing the effects of the new Administration’s policies on the economy.