FOMC

Every member that's spoken since the March meeting has expressed both a further desire to be patient on starting rate cuts (in response to the inflation data) and confidence that holding rates steady for longer will, on the margin, come with less downside risk to the labor market.

There was a lot to like from the FOMC press conference this week. Here are the highlights from Powell’s press conference.

Our baseline forecast of the dots sees most of the dots holding steady, with some dots taking cuts off for this year. . This leaves three cuts as our baseline median dot—but just barely.

With lots of new data around the corner, the Fed will want to keep its options open.

The Fed will hold, but will still probably not want to talk too much about 2024.

The Fed will leave its target range for the Federal Funds Rate at 5.25%-5.50%. The big news between the last meeting and this is the large raise in long yields, which has several committee members thinking that there will be less need to hike.